Table 2. Simulation model and formulas for calculating the risk of Salmonella through egg intake prepared by different cooking methods with @Risk

Input model	Unit	Variable	Formula	Reference
Product
Pathogens contamination level
Salmonella prevalence		PR	= RiskBeta (1,202)	This research; [17]
Initial contamination level	CFU/g	C	= − LN (1 − PR) / 25g	[18]
	Log CFU/g	IC	= Log(C)
Transportation
Transportation
Transportation time	h	Timetrans	= RiskPert (0.5,4,9)	Personal communication1); This research
Food temperature during transportation	°C	Temptrans	= RiskUniform (2.12,12.54)	[26]
Growth
		h0	= Average (LPD × growth rate), Fixed 0.3198	This research; [21]
	Log CFU/g	Y0	= Average (Y0i), Fixed 2.2	This research; [21]
	Log CFU/g	Yend	= Average (Yendi), Fixed 6.5	This research; [21]
		ln(q)	= LN (1 / (EXP (h0) − 1))	This research; [21]
Growth rate	Log CFU/g/h	GRtrans	= IF (Temptrans > 5.30841, (0.0214 × (Temptrans − 5.30841))2, 0)	This research; [21]
Salmonella growth	Log CFU/g	C1	= IC + 1 / (1 + EXP ( − ln(q))) × (1− (10−｜Y0-Yend｜/LN(10))) × GRtrans × Timetrans	This research; [21]
Market
Market storage
Storage time	h	TimeMark-st	= RiskUniform (0,24)	Personal communication;This research
Food temperature during storage	°C	TempMark-st	= RiskPert (0,4,15)	Personal communication; This research
Growth
		h0	= Average (LPD × growth rate), Fixed 0.3198	This research; [21]
	Log CFU/g	Y0	= Average (Y0i), Fixed 2.2	This research; [21]
	Log CFU/g	Yend	= Average (Yendi), Fixed 6.5	This research; [21]
		ln(q)	= LN (1 / (EXP (h0) −1))	This research; [21]
Growth rate	Log CFU/g/h	GRMark-st	= IF (TempMark-st > 5.30841, (0.0214 × (TempMark-st − 5.30841))2, 0)	This research; [21]
Salmonella growth	Log CFU/g	C2	= C1 + 1 / (1 + EXP (−ln (q))) × (1 − (10−｜Y0-Yend｜/ LN(10))) × GRMark-st × TimeMark-st	This research; [21]
Market display
Display time	h	TimeMark-dis	= RiskUniform (0,72)	Personal communication; This research
Food temperature during display	°C	TempMark-dis	= RiskUniform (0,15)	Personal communication; This research
Growth
		h0	= Average (LPD × growth rate), Fixed 0.3198	This research; [21]
	Log CFU/g	Y0	= Average (Y0i), Fixed 2.2	This research; [21]
	Log CFU/g	Yend	= Average (Yendi), Fixed 6.5	This research; [21]
		ln(q)	= LN (1 / (EXP (h0) −1))	This research; [21]
Growth rate	Log CFU/g/h	GRMark-dis	= IF (TempMark-dis > 5.30841, (0.0214 × (TempMark-dis − 5.30841))2, 0)	This research; [21]
Salmonella growth	Log CFU/g	C3	= C2 + 1 / (1 + EXP (−ln (q))) × (1 − (10−｜Y0-Yend｜/ LN (10))) × GRMark-dis × TimeMark-dis	This research; [21]
Transportation (vehicle)
Transportation
Transportation time	h	TimeVeh	= RiskUniform (0.325,1.643)	[27]
Food temperature during storage	°C	TempVeh	= RiskPer t(10,18,25)	[27]
Growth
		h0	= Average (LPD × growth rate), Fixed 0.3198	This research; [21]
	Log CFU/g	Y0	= Average (Y0i), Fixed 2.2	This research; [21]
	Log CFU/g	Yend	= Average (Yendi), Fixed 6.5	This research; [21]
		ln(q)	= LN (1 / (EXP (h0) −1))	This research; [21]
Growth rate	Log CFU/g/h	GRVeh	= IF(TempVeh > 5.30841, (0.0214 × (TempVeh-5.30841))2, 0)	This research; [21]
Salmonella growth	Log CFU/g	C4	= C3 + 1/(1 + EXP(-ln(q))) × (1− (10−｜Y0-Yend｜/ LN(10))) × GRVeh × TimeVeh	This research; [21]
Home
Home storage
Storage time	h	TimeHome	= RiskUniform (0,540)	Personal communication; This research
Food temperature during storage	°C	TempHome	= RiskLogLogistic (−29.283,33.227,26.666,Risktruncate (−5,10))	[33]
Growth
		h0	= Average (LPD × growth rate), Fixed 0.3198	This research; [21]
	Log CFU/g	Y0	= Average (Y0i), Fixed 2.2	This research; [21]
	Log CFU/g	Yend	= Average (Yendi), Fixed 6.5	This research; [21]
		ln(q)	= LN (1 / (EXP (h0) −1))	This research; [21]
Growth rate	Log CFU/g/h	GRHome	= IF(TempHome > 5.30841, (0.0214 × (TempHome−5.30841))2, 0)	This research; [21]
Salmonella growth	Log CFU/g	C5	= C4 + 1 / (1 + EXP (−ln (q))) × (1− (10−｜Y0-Yend｜/ LN (10))) × GRHome × TimeHome	This research; [21]
	CFU/g	C5CFU/g	= 10C5
Consumption
Daily consumption frequency for eggs	%	ConRatio	Fixed 60.1	[28]
		CR(0)	= 1 − (60.1/100)	[28]
		CR(1)	= 60.1 / 100	[28]
		CR	= RiskDiscrete ({0,1},{CR(0),CR(1)})	[28]
Cooking method
Dry heat cooking		Cook(dry)	= 57.5/100	[28]
Moist heat cooking		Cook(moist)	= 41/100	[28]
Raw (uncooked)		Cook(raw)	= 1.5/100	[28]
		Cook	= RiskDiscrete ({1,2,3}, {Cook (dry), Cook (moist), Cook (raw)})
Consumption by dry heat cooking	g	Consumpdry-cook	= RiskExpon (42.896,RiskShift (0.065791), RiskTruncate (0.08,360))	This research; [28]
Consumption by moist heat cooking	g	Consumpmoist-cook	= RiskExpon (36.061, RiskShift (−0.016726), RiskTruncate (0,340))	This research; [28]
Consumption by raw	g	Consumpraw	= RiskWeibull (1.2556,41.992, RiskShift (0.067782), RiskTruncate (0.32,153.9))	This research; [28]
	g	Consump	= IF (Cook = 1, Consumpdry-cook, IF (Cook = 2,Consumpmoist-cook, IF (Cook = 3,Consumpraw)))
Total consumption	g	Amount	= IF (CR = 0,0,Consump)
Reduction
Dry heat cooking		Reduce(dry)	= 57.5 / 100	[28]
Moist heat cooking		Reduce(moist)	= 41 / 100	[28]
Raw (uncooked)		Reduce(raw)	= 1.5 / 100	[28]
		Reduce	= RiskDiscrete ({1,2,3}, {Reduce (dry), Reduce (moist), Reduce (raw)})
Reduce(dry) -dry heat cooking
Cooking time	h	Timedry-cook	= RiskPert (0.03,0.07,0.1)	This research
Food temperature during cooking	°C	Tempdry-cook	= RiskPert (74 × 0.8,74,74 × 1.2)	This research; [14]
	CFU/g	Reducedry-cook	= IF (AND (Tempdry-cook > 74,Timedry-cook > 0.07), 0, C5CFU/g × 0.01)
Reduce(moist) -moist heat cooking
Cooking time	h	Timemoist-cook	= RiskPert (0.03,0.07,0.25)	This research
Food temperature during cooking	°C	Tempmoist-cook	= RiskPert (74 × 0.8,74,74 × 1.2)	This research; [14]
	CFU/g	Reducemoist-cook	= IF (AND (Tempmoist-cook > 74,Timemoist-cook > 0.07), 0, C5CFU/g × 0.01)
Reduce(raw) –raw
Cooking time	h	Timeraw	= RiskPert (0,0.02,0.03)	This research;
Food temperature during cooking	°C	Tempraw	= RiskUniform (0,60)	This research;
	CFU/g	Reduceraw	= IF (AND (Tempraw > 50, Timeraw > 0.02), 0, C5CFU/g × 0.01)
	CFU/g	Reduction	= IF (Reduce = 1, Reducedry-cook, IF (Reduce = 2, Reducemoist-cook, IF (Reduce = 3, Reduceraw)))
Final concentration	CFU/g	C6 (Cooked)	= IF (CR = 0,0,Reduction)	This research
Dose-Response
Salmonella amount	CFU	D	= C6 × Amount
Parameter of Beta Poisson		α	Fixed, 0.89	[35]
		β	Fixed, 4.4 × 105	[35]
Risk
Probability of illness/person/day		Risk	= 1 − (1 + D / β) − α	[35]

Personal communication with manager in charge of products at retail store.